NAFSA projects U.S. colleges will enroll about 111,000 fewer international students in 2026-27, a drop tied to visa restrictions that could also cost the economy nearly 40,000 jobs.
NAFSA: Association of International Educators and research firm JB International released new projections Tuesday estimating that U.S. colleges will enroll roughly 1,057,000 international students in 2026-27, down from about 1,169,000 the year before. The analysis puts that at a 9.5% decline, or about 111,000 fewer students than the prior year.
The projection builds on IIE's Spring 2026 Snapshot survey, in which most campuses already expected another enrollment drop this cycle. NAFSA now attaches a dollar figure: up to $3.4 billion in lost spending and nearly 40,000 fewer jobs supported nationwide, reversing years of post-pandemic recovery. Inside Higher Ed's summary notes that at the 2023–24 peak, international students contributed an estimated $43.8 billion to the economy and supported 378,000 jobs; next year that figure is projected to fall to roughly $38.3 billion and 294,000 jobs.
NAFSA points to several compounding causes: a December 2025 proclamation restricting entry for nationals of 39 countries — which suspends F, M, and J visas for those travelers with no blanket exceptions — along with ongoing visa-interview backlogs, threats to Optional Practical Training work authorization, and falling application volumes broadly.
This is the same story Test Ninjas flagged in July's IIE snapshot, now with real numbers attached. A 9.5% enrollment drop isn't abstract — it's a budget hole at schools that lean on full-pay international tuition to cross-subsidize everything else.
That matters for domestic applicants in two different ways depending on where you're looking.
Graduate and professional programs that historically filled seats with international students — engineering master's programs especially — have real incentive to backfill with strong domestic candidates. If you have the numbers for a competitive STEM master's or PhD program, this is a genuinely better year to apply than it was two years ago.
Undergraduate admissions at the most selective schools won't feel this the same way. Don't read a national enrollment story as "Ivy admissions got easier" — international students are a small share of undergrad seats at need-blind schools with huge applicant pools.
Combine this with the college-closure risk data we covered recently: smaller private schools that built enrollment plans around international revenue are the ones most exposed. If a school on your list is mid-tier, tuition-dependent, and has leaned publicly on international recruiting, ask directly about financial stability before you commit — and don't assume next year's sticker price or aid package will hold steady.
Nothing here changes our standing advice: start your visa paperwork earlier than feels necessary, keep documentation clean, and build a college list that isn't entirely dependent on one country's immigration policy. The 39-country entry restriction has no blanket carveout for student visas, so check your specific situation against the current list before you commit to a single-country plan.
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