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National Merit Cutoffs for the Class of 2028: State-by-State Estimates

If you're a junior taking the PSAT/NMSQT this October, your Selection Index needs to clear your state's Semifinalist cutoff — a number nobody will know until September 2027. Here's every state's real cutoff for the last two classes, our estimated range for yours, and the score we'd aim for.

How National Merit Cutoffs Work

National Merit recognition runs off your Selection Index, not your 320–1520 total score: (2 × Reading and Writing + Math) ÷ 10, on a 48–228 scale. Because Reading and Writing counts double, 10 extra points there are worth 2 Selection Index points; 10 extra Math points are worth 1.

There are two cutoffs that matter. Commended Student is a single national cutoff; about 34,000 students a year are named Commended. Semifinalist is set state by state to capture roughly the top 1% of each state's juniors — so the same score can make Semifinalist in one state and fall short in another.

Only the PSAT/NMSQT taken in 11th grade counts. For the Class of 2028, that's the October 1–30, 2026 PSAT/NMSQT.

What Happened to the Class of 2027 Cutoffs

The Class of 2027 cutoffs, from the October 2025 PSAT/NMSQT, came out on September 9, 2026 — and they fell in every state, most by 3 points or more, to the lowest average of the modern PSAT era. The national Commended cutoff dropped from 210 to 208.

That came right after the Class of 2026 set record highs in many states. Swings of 3–5 points in a single year are now normal, which is why no one can give you a single "safe" number for 2028 — only a range.

State-by-State Cutoffs and Class of 2028 Estimates

Actual Semifinalist Selection Index cutoffs for the last two classes, with our estimated range for the Class of 2028. Find your state, then check where a practice score puts you with our Selection Index calculator.

StateClass of 2027Class of 2026Class of 2028 estimate
Alabama210214209–214
Alaska208215207–215
Arizona215218214–218
Arkansas210215209–215
California220224219–224
Colorado217219216–219
Connecticut220223219–223
Delaware219220218–220
District of Columbia223225222–225
Florida216219215–219
Georgia217220216–220
Hawaii218219217–219
Idaho211215210–215
Illinois218222217–222
Indiana215218214–218
Iowa210214209–214
Kansas212216211–216
Kentucky211214210–214
Louisiana211216210–216
Maine214217213–217
Maryland221224220–224
Massachusetts221225220–225
Michigan216220215–220
Minnesota214219213–219
Mississippi211213210–213
Missouri214217213–217
Montana208213207–213
Nebraska212214211–214
Nevada211214210–214
New Hampshire215219214–219
New Jersey223225222–225
New Mexico209210208–210
New York220223219–223
North Carolina217220216–220
North Dakota208210207–210
Ohio216219215–219
Oklahoma210212209–212
Oregon216219215–219
Pennsylvania219221218–221
Rhode Island213219212–219
South Carolina212215211–215
South Dakota210211209–211
Tennessee214219213–219
Texas219222218–222
Utah209213208–213
Vermont212216211–216
Virginia221224220–224
Washington221224220–224
West Virginia208210207–210
Wisconsin212215211–215
Wyoming208210207–210
Studying Abroad223225222–225
U.S. Territories208210207–210
Commended (national)208210207–210

How We Built Our Estimates

Our range for each state runs from one point below its Class of 2027 cutoff (cutoffs dip slightly again) to its Class of 2026 cutoff (cutoffs rebound fully to last year's high). The Class of 2027 drop was unusually steep, so we think a partial rebound — landing somewhere in the middle of the range — is the most likely outcome.

These are estimates, not predictions you should bank on. Cutoffs depend on how hard this October's test turns out to be and how every junior in your state performs — neither of which anyone can know in advance.

What Score Should You Aim For?

Aim for the top of your state's range, plus a point or two. If you clear the Class of 2026 cutoff, you're very likely safe even if cutoffs rebound. In California, that means a Selection Index of 224–225; in Texas, 222–223; in Florida, 219–220.

Because Reading and Writing counts double, it's usually the fastest way to add Selection Index points: a 30-point gain in Reading and Writing adds 6 points, the same as a 60-point gain in Math.

Testing this month? A few Selection Index points is often the difference between Commended and Semifinalist. Our Fall 2026 PSAT exam preview covers test-day tips, and our PSAT/NMSQT plan gives you 20 full-length practice tests and 3,000 explained questions to close the gap.
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Frequently Asked Questions

Nobody knows yet — they're set after the October 2026 PSAT/NMSQT is scored and are released in September 2027. Based on the last two years of real cutoffs, we estimate most states will land between one point below their Class of 2027 cutoff and their Class of 2026 cutoff. For example, our California range is 219–224 and New Jersey's is 222–225.

208, down from 210 for the Class of 2026. The Commended cutoff is a single national number, not a state cutoff.

The October 2026 PSAT/NMSQT (testing window October 1–30, 2026), taken in 11th grade. Scores from 10th grade or from the PSAT 10 and PSAT 8/9 don't count.

Selection Index = (2 × Reading and Writing score + Math score) ÷ 10, on a 48–228 scale. Reading and Writing counts double, so every 10 points there is worth 2 Selection Index points.